The current account balance in Turkey remained in deficit for the 11th consecutive month in September. The current account deficit, which was announced as $2.97 billion on a monthly basis, was slightly above the market median expectation and slightly below our expectation. The current account balance had a surplus of 4.1 billion dollars in the same month of the previous year. The current account deficit level in August was realized as 2.74 billion dollars according to the revised values. The 12-month total current account deficit rose to $39.2 billion in September from the revised $33.5 billion in August. While the 9-month current account deficit was 38 billion dollars, a deficit of 6.07 billion dollars was realized in the same period of the previous year (January – September 2021). In September, we see that the current account excluding energy gave a surplus of 4.2 billion dollars (September 2021: +6.4 billion dollars), while the current account excluding gold and energy gave a surplus of 6.8 billion dollars. (September 2021: +6.6 billion dollars).
Similar to the previous months, the effect of the increase in the foreign trade deficit is seen in the widening of the current account deficit. The foreign trade deficit, on the other hand, increased by 6.9 billion dollars compared to the previous year and gave a deficit of 8.1 billion dollars. On the services balance side, it is observed that a surplus of 6 billion dollars was achieved, with an increase of 1.3 billion dollars compared to the same period of the previous year. In this period, tourism revenues recorded a net inflow of 4.6 billion dollars.
While net inflows originating from direct investments on the financing side were 488 million dollars in September, it is seen that there was a net outflow of 3.37 billion dollars on the portfolio side. While net sales of stocks were 522 million dollars, net sales of debt instruments were 115 million dollars. Net errors and omissions registered $2.61 billion in entries in September, while 9-month net errors and omissions increased to $24.9 billion from $10.7 billion last year. The net decrease in central bank reserves was $1.66 billion. While the reserves increased by 10.79 billion dollars in August 2022, there was an increase of 1.2 billion dollars in the 9-month period. As the sum of all these components, we observe that the financial account, which recorded a net inflow of $9.9 billion in August, indicates an outflow of $1.3 billion in September. In the 9-month period of this year, the net financial account inflow was 14.3 billion dollars.
Turkey’s C/A account, million USD, 12 months Source: CBRT, Tera Yatirim
In the balance of payments; In the retrospective data, we observe the very serious effects of the revisions made within the scope of tourism revenues and income balance. In this context, the current account deficit data calculated for 12 months may approach the band of 45 billion dollars before the revision, while it remained at the level of 39.2 billion dollars with the revision effect. On the tourism revenue side, a positive correction was made, especially in the revisions made since 2012. Of course, this calculation change will also affect the forecasts for the future. We expect a current account deficit of 49 billion dollars throughout the year.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
