If the Turkish lira deposit/participation fund ratio is below 50% of the total deposits, the Central Bank increases the FX required reserve commission rate it receives from banks from 3% to 8%. According to this;
-If the rate is 50-60%, the commission rate will be 3% for banks, and no commission will be taken from those with a rate above 60%.
-The new rates will be effective from the calculation date, 23 December.
This move, which aims to increase lira deposits, is in line with the central bank’s “liraization” strategy. After the Central Bank reduced the policy rate to single digits for the first time after August 2020, it is seen that the additional measures that were referenced were followed immediately. Within the framework of such macroprudential measures, it is aimed to return the weight of deposits in banks to TL. Some of this will be in the form of exchange from foreign currency to TL. While banks are directed to this, an extra commission will be applied to those who cannot increase their TL deposit weight, and this will be applied only for the 50% threshold and for the 60% threshold.
Banking sector TL, FX deposits and policy rate comparison… Source: BRSA, CBRT, Tera Yatırım
As of September, banks had generally approached the 50% TL deposit rate. BRSA September data gives the weight of TL deposits as 48.3% for the sector in general, 46.5% for private banks and 53.4% for public banks. In higher frequency weekly data, both the BRSA and the CBRT’s “Weekly Money and Banking Statistics” point to a 49.5% TL deposit ratio across the sector. Banks have recently started to give high interest rates to TL deposits in order not to miss out on depositors. They can create special offers, rates, returns and higher deposit costs, possibly in order not to miss deposits and not be subject to RR commission penalty. The weighted average deposit rates of the CBRT show the 3-month TL deposit rates as 20.69% as of the week of 18 November. Average deposit rates, which were around 18% in September, seem to have increased, possibly due to newly opened high-interest accounts.
While banks increase deposit rates in order not to miss out on depositors, they normally have to give loans at higher interest rates. Commercial loan rates and market rates decreased in line with the latest macroprudential regulations. According to the CBRT data, the weighted average commercial loan rates reached 15.91% as of the week of 18 November. Despite the fact that retail loans are 30.72% on average according to the same data, the reduction of retail loans and the difficulty of commercial loan outflows negatively affect the loan/deposit spread of banks in this deposit race environment. Considering that there will be very low interest bills in stocks, we are likely to see the toxic effects of rate cuts rather than their positive effects. The reason for this is the risk of too many ancillary measures that will make it difficult to maintain the balance sheet balance and interest rate asymmetry caused by bond liabilities.
As a result; As it is understood in the MPC text, the Central Bank will continue to advance in a complex policy mix by using such macroprudential measures as a policy tool. In particular, we find these regulations, which have contradictory purposes, clearly negative for the banking system.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
