In October, industrial production in Turkey increased by 2.5% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 2.4% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 3.1% compared to the same period of the previous year. Thus, the annual change in three-month averages in industrial production remained at the lowest level of the post-pandemic period (after July 2020), with 2.5% compared to the change in unadjusted indices.
The data reversed the 1.6% month-on-month decline in September with an increase of 2.4% in October and accelerated the revised 0.5% increase in September to 2.5% year-on-year in October. Especially in the recent period, industrial production data, which corresponds to the decline in exports due to the recession risks of the European Union, the Russia-Ukraine energy crisis and the decrease in the capacity utilization rate, seem to have shown a positive course.
When we look at the details; mining and quarrying increased by 7.8% on a monthly basis, while contracting by 7.4% on an annual basis. While an increase of 2.5% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a 3.7% growth on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was a decrease of 2.1% on a monthly basis and a contraction of 4.8% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, capital goods increased by 9.9%, durable consumer goods increased by 4.6% and intermediate goods increased by 1.1%. While non-durable consumer goods did not change, energy decreased by 0.7%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; capital goods increased by 26.6%, durable consumer goods increased by 5.5% and non-durable consumer goods increased by 2.9%; intermediate goods decreased by 5% and energy by 3.6%.
Industrial Production, 3-month moving average, annual % change… Source: TurkStat, Tera Yatırım
There may be some slowdown in this momentum in the coming months. Uncertainty in energy and commodity prices, slowdown in global growth and even stagnation seem to be downside risk factors in this regard. On the other hand, high technology, being able to replace the European manufacturing industry in terms of resources and the positive contribution of sectoral indices can be our strengths. In order to evolve the growth model to a sustainable point, diversification of activities in non-European markets (such as America, Africa, Asia) and accordingly reducing the vulnerability to crises, competitiveness in high technology, and increasing the use of green energy in the industry in a structural sense. Taking into account the growth in 4Q22, we forecast 5.5% growth in 2022.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
