In November, industrial production in Turkey, in calendar adjusted terms, decreased by 1.3% compared to the same month of the previous year (compared to +2.8% revised in October); Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production decreased by 1.1% compared to the previous month (compared to the revised data from +2.5 to +3.2% in October). According to unadjusted data, industrial production decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period of the previous year. Thus, the annual change in three-month averages in industrial production remained at the lowest level of the post-pandemic period (after July 2020), with 0.9% compared to the change in unadjusted indices.
Although there is an increase rate in certain sectors, it is seen that there is a weakening when it is spread to the general. In 3-month averages, production lost momentum and fell below 1%. We expect this trend to continue in the future, because the economic course in Europe, especially in the axis of the energy crisis, adversely affects the situation of exporting sectors. If there is a deep and widespread stagnation in orders and PMIs in markets such as Europe, Germany and Italy, the negative effects in terms of domestic capacity utilization and exports may continue. In the current situation, both the current and 3-month expectations of the manufacturing PMI and real sector indicators reveal the slowdown. Therefore, foreign demand and exports may not have a significant contribution to growth.
When we look at the details; While mining and quarrying decreased by 1.3% on a monthly basis, it contracted by 8.6% on an annual basis. While there was a 1% decrease in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a 0.4% contraction on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was a decrease of 2.3% on a monthly basis and a contraction of 7.9% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, durable goods increased by 1.3%. Energy decreased by 2.5%, intermediate goods by 1.6%, capital goods by 1.1% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.5%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; capital goods increased by 18.3%, durable consumer goods increased by 4.1% and non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.3%; intermediate goods decreased by 8.6% and energy by 6.5%. High-tech goods groups, on the other hand, grew by 13% on a monthly basis and by 49.7% on an annual basis.
Industrial Production, 3-month moving average, annual % change… Source: TurkStat, Tera Investment
Domestic growth prospects are more positive than global. Sectors that produce and sell for domestic demand can support industrial production and growth. Consumption and public spending, as well as the new CGF package, will likely further support growth in 4Q22 and beyond. We anticipate that the investment momentum will slow down.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım- Enver Erkan
